The myth of the Oklahoma loss

 

I hear it everywhere, from the Internet to the teachers' lounge: Nebraska would have never lost to Oklahoma if they hadn't suddenly decided they were a passing team! They abandoned the run and paid the price!

 

Of course, it has to be the most ironic excuse Nebraska fans have come up with in a long, long time. It is also inaccurate. Nebraska's playcalling followed very similar patterns that it has in every game this year. Did they throw more passes? Yes. Did they do it because they abandoned the runs that they had used all year? No. They ran and passed in nearly the same ratios they had all year. The key is to look at the down and distance situations. That is what changed, not the playcalling.

 

To look at this situation, I consider only the first ten Husker drives of the game. After that point Nebraska had too few possessions left in the game to run anything close to its regular game plan. In fact, including possession ten after the Watchhorn interception is probably a stretch.

 

In those ten series, the playcalling in different down-and-distance situations shows that the Husker offense used the pass and the run in the same fashion as it has all season.

 

NOTES: Season statistics do not include Baylor or San Jose State gmaes because we do not have play-by-play scripts for those. Called passes that ended up as scrambles or sacks are counted as passes.

 

* On 20 first-and-ten plays Nebraska threw four times against the Sooners (20%). For the season NU throws 21% of the time (33/155).

 

* On 7 second-and-medium plays (5-9 yards) at Oklahoma, NU threw twice (28%). For the season NU has thrown on 18 of 71 snaps (25%).

 

* On 9 second-and-longs (10 or more yards) Nebraska threw five times (55%). For the season Nebraska throws 45% of the time (14/31)

 

* On 7 third-and-mediums NU threw on all six plays (84%). For the season Nebraska throws 73% (17/23) of the time.

 

* On 4 third-and-longs against OU, the Huskers threw every time (100%). For the season NU has thrown 92% (11/12) of the plays.

 

 

Obviously, Nebraska did not abandon the running game. They simply had more long down-and-distance situations against Oklahoma, and it wasn't an abnormal use on first down passes that got them there.